AIQ Market Timing: October 2025 – January 2026 Case Study

Jan 14, 2026 | expert rating, expert ratings, expert system, indexes

How Five Market Timing Signals Captured 4,500 Points While Avoiding Two Major Declines

One of the most common questions we hear from traders is: “Can a systematic approach really identify market turning points in real-time?” The answer is yes—when you have the right tools and a disciplined, rule-based methodology.

Let me show you exactly how AIQ Market Timing navigated a volatile 2.5-month period from October 2025 through January 2026, capturing three significant rallies totaling 4,500 points while protecting capital during two major reversals totaling over 3,000 points of decline.

The Setup: Multiple Bullish Confirmations (October 20, 2025)

On October 20th, AIQ Market Timing issued a 98 UP signal at 46,707 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But this wasn’t just a single indicator flashing green—it was a confluence of five critical rules firing simultaneously:

Rule #1: Trend Status Confirmation

  • Trend Status changed to a weak upward trend

  • This indicated an upward trend was starting that could continue

  • Classification: Moderate bullish signal

Rule #2: Exponentially Smoothed A/D Line

  • The smoothed advance/decline line turned positive

  • Key factor: The UD volume oscillator and A/D oscillator were ALREADY positive

  • This alignment is viewed as bullish, often preceding upward price movement

Rule #3: Up/Down Volume Oscillator

  • The UD volume oscillator turned positive

  • Confirmation: A/D oscillator and smoothed A/D line were already positive

  • This convergence signaled institutional buying was building

Rule #4: Advance/Decline Oscillator

  • The A/D oscillator turned positive

  • Supporting indicators: UD volume and smoothed A/D line already positive

  • Multiple breadth measures confirming the move

Rule #5: Volume Accumulation Alignment

  • A/D oscillator turned positive with volume accumulation already positive

  • In a weak upward market, this signals prices could continue rising

  • Professional money was accumulating positions

The Result: +1,333 Points in 8 Days

The market moved from 46,707 on October 21st to 48,040 on October 29th—a gain of 1,333 points (+2.85%) in just eight trading days.

This is the power of waiting for multiple confirming indicators rather than jumping on single signals. The system identified strong internal market momentum that wasn’t yet obvious to casual observers.

The Top: System Catches the Reversal (October 30, 2025)

Just one day after the market high, on October 30th at 47,659, AIQ Market Timing 98 issued a DOWN signal. The system caught the top within just 11 points of the absolute high (48,040 vs. 47,659).

Two Critical Bearish Rules Fired:

Rule #1: Breadth Deterioration

  • The exponentially smoothed A/D line turned negative

  • Warning sign: UD volume oscillator and A/D oscillator were already negative

  • This indicated institutional distribution was underway

Rule #2: Volume Accumulation Breakdown

  • Volume accumulation turned negative

  • The A/D oscillator was already negative

  • In a downtrending market, this bearish signal often precedes price declines

Initial Decline: -1,164 Points in 7 Days

From the October 31st level of 47,659, the market dropped to 46,495 by November 7th—a decline of 1,164 points (-2.44%) in seven trading days.

Traders following these signals would have been long for the +2.85% rally and either flat or profitably short for the -2.44% decline.

The Confirmation: Second Down Signal (November 4, 2025)

On November 4th, while the market was still declining, AIQ Market Timing 98 issued a second DOWN signal, reinforcing the bearish outlook. This is where systematic trading truly shines—when multiple signals confirm the trend in real-time.

Three Additional Bearish Rules Fired:

Rule #1: Trend Status Reversal

  • Trend Status changed to a weak downward trend

  • This confirmed the downward trend was likely to continue

  • Classification: Moderate bearish signal

Rule #2: Stochastic and Volume Divergence

  • Volume accumulation percentage was decreasing

  • The 21-day stochastic moved below the 80% line

  • In a downtrending market: Strong bearish signal

  • This combination often precedes significant downward price movement

Rule #3: UD Volume Oscillator Breakdown

  • The UD volume oscillator turned negative

  • Critical context: Smoothed A/D line and A/D oscillator were already negative

  • This confirmed selling pressure was intensifying

Signal #3: Back to Bullish (November 10, 2025)

On November 10th at 47,368, AIQ Market Timing issued an UP signal (97), indicating the correction had run its course and a new upward move was beginning.

Four Powerful Bullish Rules Fired:

Rule #1: Exponentially Smoothed A/D Line

  • Turned positive with UD volume oscillator and A/D oscillator already positive

  • This alignment indicated strong bullish internal momentum building

Rule #2: Advance/Decline Oscillator Confirmation

  • Turned positive with UD volume oscillator and smoothed A/D line already positive

  • Multiple breadth measures confirming the new uptrend

Rule #3: Volume Accumulation Alignment

  • A/D oscillator turned positive with volume accumulation already positive

  • In a sideways market, this signals prices could begin upward movement

  • Professional buying was returning

Rule #4: New High/New Low Reversal

  • The NH/NL indicator reversed to the upside

  • Classification: Reliable bullish signal

  • Often followed by upward price movement

  • In a sideways market, an uptrend could start shortly

The Rally: +1,063 Points in 3 Days

The market surged from 47,384 on November 11th to 48,431 on November 13th—a gain of 1,040 points (+2.22%) in just three trading days.

Signal #4: The Top Again (November 13, 2025)

At the market high of 48,233, AIQ Market Timing issued a DOWN signal (100), once again catching the reversal with precision.

Five Bearish Rules Fired:

Rule #1: Stochastic and Price Phase Weakness

  • 21-day stochastic declined below the 80% line

  • Price phase indicator also decreasing

  • In the uptrending market: Weak bearish signal indicating possible near-term decline

Rule #2: Smoothed A/D Line Breakdown

  • Turned negative with UD volume and A/D oscillator already negative

  • Clear sign of breadth deterioration

Rule #3: UD Volume Oscillator Reversal

  • Turned negative with smoothed A/D line and A/D oscillator already negative

  • Institutional selling was intensifying

Rule #4: A/D Oscillator Breakdown

  • Turned negative with UD volume and smoothed A/D line already negative

  • All breadth measures aligned bearishly

Rule #5: New High/New Low Reversal

  • The NH/NL indicator reversed to the downside

  • Classification: Reliable bearish signal

  • Often followed by downward price movement

  • In an uptrending market, a trend reversal could occur

The Decline: -1,500 Points in 7 Days

From November 14th’s open of 47222, the market plunged to 45,728 on November 20th—a drop of nearly 1500 points (3.16%) in five trading days.

This was a significant correction that caught many traders off guard. But AIQ Market Timing identified it precisely at the top.

Signal #5: The Current Rally (November 18, 2025 – Present)

On November 18th at 46,091, AIQ Market Timing issued an UP signal (96), catching the bottom of the correction and positioning traders for what would become a powerful sustained rally.

The Rally Continues: over 3000 Points and Counting

From the November 19th entry at 46,138, the market has surged to 49,616 as of January 13, 2026—a gain of over 3,300 points (+7.0%) that is STILL RUNNING.

This ongoing rally has already lasted 45 days and shows the power of staying with a trend when the system confirms the move.

The Complete Picture: What This Teaches Us

Over a 2.5-month period from October 21, 2025 to January 9, 2026, AIQ Market Timing issued five signals:

The Numbers Are Staggering

Total gains captured: over 5,000 points across three rallies Total declines avoided: over 3,000 points across two corrections Current position: Still long in a rally that has gained 7.0%

Compare this to buy-and-hold over the same period:

  • Started: 46,707 (Oct 21)

  • Current: 49,504 (Jan 9)

  • Buy-and-hold gain: +2,797 points (+5.99%)

This sequence demonstrates several critical principles of successful systematic trading:

1. Confirmation Over Single Indicators

Every up signal had multiple rules firing together—not weak, isolated signals but powerful confluences showing aligned market internals. Signal #1 had five rules, Signal #3 had four rules including the reliable NH/NL indicator.

2. Speed Matters

The system caught reversals with remarkable precision: one day after the October high, right at the November 13th high. Manual observation would have missed these turning points.

3. Internal Strength vs. Price Action

The breadth indicators (A/D measures, volume accumulation, UD volume, NH/NL) detected shifts in market character before they became obvious in price alone.

4. Consistency Across Different Market Conditions

This wasn’t a lucky streak. The system worked in:

  • Weak upward trends (October)

  • Weak downward trends (early November)

  • Sideways markets (mid-November)

  • Strong sustained uptrends (late November – January)

5. Multiple Cycles Compound Returns

Notice how the system didn’t just catch ONE move—it navigated FIVE distinct market phases. This is where systematic trading truly shines: the ability to stay on the right side of the market through multiple cycles.

6. Reliable Indicators Add Conviction

The New High/New Low indicator appeared in both Signal #3 (bullish reversal) and Signal #4 (bearish reversal), classified as “reliable” both times. When these high-probability signals appear, they deserve attention. Adding in the Phase indicator, confirmation was present for all the signals and is considered a valid confirmation within +/- 3 days of the signal.

7. Both Sides of the Market

This wasn’t just about catching rallies. The system protected capital by identifying when conditions changed, allowing traders to exit longs, stay in cash, or even profit from declines totaling 3,669 points.

Multiply this advantage over weeks, months, and years, and you begin to understand why systematic, rule-based trading provides such a significant edge.

The Bottom Line

AIQ Market Timing isn’t about predictions or gut feelings. It’s about:

  • Objective rules that fire based on market internals

  • Multiple confirming indicators that reduce false signals

  • Real-time alerts that keep you informed as conditions change

  • Historical validation proving the methodology works across different market environments

  • Consistent performance across multiple market cycles

Are you ready to trade with this level of systematic precision? $1 trial available

Learn more about AIQ Market Timing 98 and other professional-grade technical analysis tools at AIQ Systems.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk. The examples shown are for educational purposes and represent act

Why Do Serious Traders Rely on AI-Based Expert Ratings in WinWay TradingExpert Pro?

Jul 27, 2025 | expert rating, expert ratings, expert system

They cut through the noise and reveal high-probability trade setups. That’s where TradingExpert Pro’s AI-based expert ratings come in. With over 400 built-in rule sets, this proprietary system assigns a bullish or bearish score to each stock, ranging from +100 (strong buy) to -100 (strong sell).

These scores are generated from technical rules developed by top traders and analysts, analyzing indicators like RSI, MACD, stochastic, volume, momentum, and dozens more. The AI scans every stock nightly, summarizing complex conditions into one clear rating. Traders use these scores to validate their setups, spot new opportunities, and avoid false breakouts.

In short, it’s a technical signal aggregator that saves time, reduces bias, and adds discipline — everything a serious trader wants.

WinWay’s Expert Rating signals are designed to anticipate changes in the direction of price movement.  Some are accurate, while others are not. However, more often than not, the Expert Rating signals are accurate. Of the accurate signals, some are received early, some are received late, and some are accepted at the perfect time. Since traders cannot predict next week’s market prices, they must decide whether to make a trade or to stand aside based on the information available.

In order to help the prudent trader increase the number of profitable trades, WinWay TradingExpert Pro provides a wide array of information that can be used for signal validation.  The process of using other information to validate signals is called signal confirmation. Signal confirmation is accomplished in a variety of ways.  Inherent in each method is a certain risk vs. reward characteristic; the specific method must be decided by each trader.  As the level of confirmation increases, the level of risk is reduced.  As risk is reduced, the level of potential reward is also reduced.  Traders must balance their levels of risk tolerance against their reward objectives.

The Signal Confirmation rules are: 1. No Confirmation 2. Price Confirmation 3. Price/Volume Confirmation 4. Independent Corroboration by Separate TradingExpert Components Important

Market Timing – confirmed or not makes a big difference

Oct 25, 2022 | expert rating, expert ratings, expert system, indexes, market timing

it’s been a challenging market this year, and making trading decisions has never been easy. Which direction the market is likely to move plays a huge part in stock trading decisions.
The Expert Rating system on the market with its combination of 400 rules on the Dow 30 index and the NYSE internals has always provided us an early indication of direction changes.
No system is infallible, and when the Expert System on the market was created, we noticed that ratings of 95 or higher to the upside or downside (maximum rating is 100 btw) were significant. We also noticed a marked improvement in the accuracy of the ratings if we used a confirmation technique with a momentum indicator.
After much research, we discovered that the Phase Indicator (a version of a MACD histogram) was the most accurate tool to confirm high ratings.
*** Here’s how we use Phase to confirm a high Expert Rating. ***
When a rating of 95 up or 95 down is triggered on the market, we look for the Phase histogram to change direction. The change in direction must be to the direction of the rating. This change does not have to happen on the day of the rating, but it must occur within 2 to 3 days on either side of the rating day.
If the Phase does not change direction, the rating is considered not confirmed.
This short video analysis of the last 4 ratings shows this process in action.
Want to try out this for yourself? https://winwaycharts.com/wordpress/free-trial/

AI Market Timing Signals – how to confirm

Sep 1, 2022 | expert rating, expert ratings, expert system, market timing

The WinWay TradingExpert Pro Market Timing signals are not a perfect system. If they were no doubt the founders would have kept it secret and traded the signals themselves.

The signals that give us early waring of a change in direction of the market are proprietary. The 400 rules that are used by the Artificial Intelligence inference engine to determine change of market direction use many of the widely known technical tools, read review here.

The rating calculation and the indicators contributing to the ratings have not been changed for many years. A decision was made some years ago to avoid constantly moving the goalposts as the constant optimizing or back fitting erodes the validity of the system.

High ratings to the upside or downside of notice have to be 95 or greater (the maximum is 100). the ratings are considered confirmed when the Phase indicator that is outside of the AI system, changes in the direction of the high rating.

So ratings have fired in the last few months how do we confirm them?

We look for the Phase indicator ( a derivative of MACD) to change in the direction of the signal. This needs to occur within a 3 day window before or after the rating.

The last 2 market timing signals illustrate this nicely.

August 18, 2022 97-2 up signal on the market

The up signal occurred during a a 3 day down period on the uptrend, however the Phase indicator did not change direction (it would need to turn up after going down) within the window for confirmation. This signal is therefore unconfirmed by Phase.

August 22, 2022 down signal on the market

The down signal occurred on 8-22-22. 100 down is the strongest signal the market timing generates. In this case the Phase turned down after a prolonged upward move, on the day before the signal. This is considered a confirmed down signal on the market.

The rules that contributed to 0-100 down on the market

The 100 down signal is the strongest signal the AI system generates. Here are the major technical events that contribute to this rating.

Trend Status has changed to a strong down trend. This indicates that a downward trend has started that may continue in this direction. This is a moderate bearish signal.

The 21 day stochastic has declined below the 80% line and the price phase indicator is decreasing. In this strongly downtrending market this is an indication that the downtrend will continue.

Volume accumulation percentage is decreasing and the 21 day stochastic has moved below the 80% line. In this strongly down market, this is taken as a very strong bearish signal that could be followed by a downward price movement.

The exponentially smoothed advance/decline line has turned negative when the up/down volume oscillator and the advance/decline oscillator are already negative. In this market, this is viewed as a bearish signal that could precede a downward price movement.

The up/down volume oscillator has turned negative when the exponentially smoothed advance/decline line and the advance/decline oscillator are already negative. In this market, this is viewed as a bearish signal that could precede a downward price movement.

The new high/new low indicator has reversed to the downside. This is a reliable bearish signal that is often followed by an downward price movement. In this market a continued strong downtrend can be expected.

AIQ Market Timing update 6-28-20

Jun 30, 2020 | Charts, expert rating, expert ratings, expert system, market timing

This video on the Market Timing signals in AIQ is also applicable for our WinWayCharts TradingExpert Market Timing. Check it out.

Market volatility continues. In this update we’ll take a look at the current AI signals on the Dow Jones. For folks less familiar with our AI engine here’s a recap of what we do.

TradingExpert Pro uses two AI knowledge bases, one specifically designed to issue market timing signals and the other designed to issue stock timing signals.

Each contains approximately 400 rules, but only a few “fire” on any given day.  In the language of expert systems, those rules that are found to be valid on a particular day are described as having “fired”.

Rules can fire in opposite directions.  When this happens, the bullish and bearish rules fight it out.  It’s only when bullish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bullish, or when bearish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bearish.

The Expert Rating consists of two values.

The upside rating is the value on the left and the downside rating is on the right.  Expert Ratings are based on a scale of 0 to 100.  An Expert Rating of 95 to 100 is considered a strong signal that the Stock or market may change direction.

An Expert Rating below 90 is considered meaningless.  A low rating means that there is not enough consistency in the rules that fired to translate to a signal.  The expert system has not found enough evidence to warrant a change from the last strong signal.

Your WinWayCharts – how it called the up move on June 4, 2019

Jul 17, 2019 | expert system, market timing

When AIQ released StockExpert in 1987, the Expert Ratings were the foundation of the system. This release represented the first software product developed for personal computers that used Artificial Intelligence to signal equity movement. AIQ’s founder and knowledge engineer, Dr. J.D. Smith, chose to use expert system technology that was developed at Stanford University in the late 60’s. An expert system uses a knowledge based rule driven structure.

Dr. Smith tested hundreds of technical rules that had been published by respected analysts.Those rules that tested well were placed into a knowledge base of rules. Rules were weighted based on their effectiveness. When a series of bullish rules was triggered, an Expert Rating buy signal was generated. A series of bearish rules generated an Expert Rating sell signal.The sell signal that the AI system issued on April 18, 2019 presaged a 2000 point move down. Things changed on June 4, 2019 the AI system issued a buy signal the market is up over 2000 points.

In this video Steve Hill explains the internal rules of the Expert System that generated the signal

 

 

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