The Dow Jones Industrial Average just changed — Alphabet replaced Verizon on June 29. The Transportation Average changed too — FedEx Freight replaced American Airlines on June 1.
And while the “Industrials” sit at record highs, the Transports are roughly 12% off their peak, hammered by oil back above $100 a barrel.
Charles Dow Had a Name for This
Non-confirmation. It preceded the 1973 top. It preceded the 2000 top.
It also fired plenty of false alarms.
So which is it this time — warning or noise?
Opinions are cheap. Signals are testable. In 45 minutes, Steve Hill shows you how to read this divergence with rules, not guesswork.
What You’ll Walk Away With
01 · The 2026 Dow, Decoded
Exactly what changed in the Dow 30 and TRAN this year, and why “Industrial” is now mostly a nickname — Goldman, Nvidia, and Apple drive this index.
02 · Dow Theory in Plain English
What a DJIA/TRAN non-confirmation actually signals, when it has mattered historically, and when it hasn’t.
03 · The Oil Overlay
Why $100 crude hits the 20 Transports stocks directly (4 airlines, heavy trucking) while barely touching today’s Dow 30 — and making a group of fuel-sensitive names in TradingExpert Pro.
Steve Hill, Founder of WinWayCharts and CEO AIQ Systems, conducted a 45-minute Zoom session demonstrating how to use AI, specifically Claude by Anthropic, to create trading strategies and indicators within the TradingExpert Pro Expert Design Studio.
Steve showed how Claude can generate custom indicators and strategies from scratch, including a volume-weighted momentum indicator and a consecutive close filter indicator, which were successfully implemented and tested in the system.
He explained the process of creating these indicators, including debugging and testing them, and demonstrated how the AI-generated strategies could be backtested on a database of stocks.
Steve emphasized that while AI tools like Claude can significantly speed up the development process and create new indicators not previously available in the system, traders still need to validate and test the effectiveness of these strategies through backtesting and further refinement.
The last few weeks have been a gut-check: the Dow shed over 800 points in a session, the Nasdaq dropped 4% as the semiconductors rolled over, the VIX is spiking, and roughly a trillion dollars of market value has evaporated.
This is exactly the environment that separates disciplined traders from emotional ones.
Join Steve Hill,founder of WinWayCharts and CEO of AIQ Systems, as He Covers
01 · Before the Drop
What AIQ’s Market Timing model and Expert Rating were signaling before the drop
02 · Calling the Turn
How MACD divergence and Phase Analysis called the turn in the semiconductors
03 · Finding the Leaders
An EDS screen to surface the stocks quietly holding up while everything else sells off
It’s a demonstration of reacting to the rules instead of the noise — the whole point of trading a system.
Watch Steve Hill break down market internals — and reveal why the S&P 500’s biggest moves are hiding inside just one sector.
The market is sending mixed signals. The Dow hits new highs. But under the surface, most sectors are going nowhere.
In this free video session, WinWayChart’s Steve Hill walks you through exactly what’s happening right now — and how TradingExpert Pro’s Expert Rating is helping traders cut through the noise.
In This Session You’ll See
01 · The Warning Before the Noise
How two Expert Rating down signals in May flagged the warning before most traders noticed
02 · One Sector, 30% of the Move
Why the technology sector now drives 30% of S&P 500 movement — and what that means for your timing
03 · Sector Breadth, Rebuilt
The new sector breadth analysis approach using 11 S&P 500 segments to pinpoint where opportunity is building
04 · Early Buy Signals
Which sectors — healthcare, materials — are flashing early buy signals right now
05 · The Catch-Up Question
Why the equal-weighted S&P 500 is lagging badly — and what it takes for the broader market to play catch-up
Steve Hill just wrapped a fast-paced 10-minute deep dive into something most traders have never seen done before: using sector ETF breadth data inside TradingExpert Pro to spot market rotation before it shows up in price.
Here’s why this is different from anything else out there:
Most breadth analysis stops at the NYSE or NASDAQ level. You see advancing vs. declining stocks, and you get a general sense of market health. That’s useful — but it’s incomplete.
When you break the S&P 500 down into its eleven sectors and track each one’s internal breadth data, something remarkable happens. You can see which sectors are quietly leading… and which are fading, even when the headline index looks fine.
Steve walks you through exactly how to set this up in TradingExpert Pro using special sector ETF tickers — and how to read the combined picture to spot high-probability rotation opportunities.
This is institutional-level analysis, built right into the software. Here are the files to make it happen. Don’t have AIQ? There’s a $1 trial offer below for you to check it out.
The 11 SP500 Sector markets are available in this zip file, unzip these to your wintes32/mdata folder
The 11 State Street ETFs are likely already in your AIQ database but are available in this zip file, unzip these to your /wintes32/tdata folder.
The list file for the 11 SP500 Sector markets is here, save to your wintes32 folder.
Make sure you go to Data Manager and under Utilities perform a Rebuild Master Ticker List. Also when updating your data each day, select Update Breadth Tickers and Compute Markets are selected.
The Zweig Thrust was also used on this video, the EDS file for this is here, save to your /wintes32/EDS Strategies folder. In Charts go to Chart, Settings, Indicator Library, EDS Indicators. Add the location to the Zweig EDS file, and for indicator type select one line with upper/lower support. Upper support set to 61, lower support to 40.
Markets in March 2026 were doing what markets do best — confusing people. Prices were pulling back. Headlines were negative. The majority of traders were uncertain, defensive, or on the sidelines.
But inside TradingExpert Pro, the market timing model was building a case. Not based on opinion. Not based on news. Based on the systematic, rule-by-rule analysis that AIQ has refined over three decades. And by the end of March, that case was overwhelming.
Here’s exactly what the system saw — and what it meant.
March 18 & 19 — The Opening Signal
On March 18, the AIQ market timing model issued an Expert Rating of 96 — Up. The following day, March 19, it fired again: another 96 — Up.
Back-to-back readings above 95 in consecutive sessions are not noise. An Expert Rating above 95 represents a high-conviction bullish technical condition — the system telling you, in its clearest language, that the weight of technical evidence favours higher prices. When that reading repeats on consecutive days, the model is reinforcing its own conclusion.
At this point, the disciplined AIQ trader is already paying close attention.
March 25 — Phase Analysis Confirms the Direction
4 days later, on March 25, Phase Analysis confirmed what the Expert Rating had been signalling.
The market Phase changed to Up.
This is a pivotal moment in any signal sequence. The Expert Rating identifies the condition; Phase Analysis identifies the trend cycle. When a high Expert Rating is followed by a Phase change in the same direction, the two most important components of the AIQ market timing model are in full agreement. The signal is no longer early — it is confirmed.
March 31 — The Full Picture
March 31 produced the most powerful single-day reading in the sequence — an Expert Rating of 98 — Up, arriving with Phase already turned upward. The individual timing rules that fired during this sequence tell a story that every AIQ trader should understand, because they illustrate precisely how the system thinks.
Rule 1: 21-Day Low Intraday Price with Positive Volume Accumulation
Intraday low prices declined to a 21-day low — a reading that, on the surface, looks bearish. But volume accumulation percentage was positive. In AIQ’s market timing logic, this non-confirmation is a weak bullish signal. Price is making new lows, but money is not leaving the market. That divergence matters.
Rule 2: 21-Day Low Closing Price with Rising Advance/Decline Breadth
Closing prices also reached a 21-day low. Again, superficially bearish. But market breadth — measured by advances versus declines — was increasing. When prices fall to new lows but more stocks are advancing than declining, the selling is not broad-based. This non-confirmation is a bullish signal indicating a possible upward price movement. The majority of the market is quietly holding up while the index prints a low.
Rule 3: 21-Day Low Closing Price with Rising Advance/Decline Oscillator
A third rule reinforced the same theme: closing prices at a 21-day low, but the advance/decline oscillator increasing. Another non-confirmation. Another bullish signal. Three separate breadth and price divergence rules all pointing the same direction — up.
Rule 4: 21-Day Stochastic Crossing the 20% Line with Rising Price Phase
The 21-day stochastic advanced and crossed the 20% line, while the price phase indicator was also increasing. In a weakly downtrending market, AIQ classifies this combination as a strong bullish signal suggesting an increase in prices. The stochastic crossing 20% from below is a classic oversold recovery signal — but paired with a rising price phase, it carries significantly more weight.
Rule 5: Rising Volume Accumulation with 21-Day Stochastic Above 20%
Volume accumulation percentage was increasing while the 21-day stochastic moved above the 20% line. In a downtrending market, AIQ rates this a strong bullish signal. Volume accumulation captures the relationship between buying and selling pressure over time. When it starts rising in a downtrend while momentum is recovering from oversold levels, the path of least resistance is shifting.
Rule 6: Negative Price Phase with Rising Volume Accumulation
Finally, even with the price phase still registering negative, volume accumulation had started to advance. In AIQ’s rules, this non-confirmation — volume diverging positively from a negative price phase — is a bullish signal regardless of market type. It doesn’t matter what the trend classification is. When volume accumulation turns up against a negative phase, the model says: the market is preparing to move higher.
What the Full Sequence Tells Us
Step back and look at this sequence as a whole.
March 18: Expert Rating 96 — Up. March 19: Expert Rating 96 — Up, confirmed. March 25: Phase changes to Up, validating both prior signals. March 31: Expert Rating 98 — Up, with six individual timing rules all firing bullish simultaneously, spanning price divergence, breadth divergence, volume accumulation, stochastic recovery, and phase analysis.
Every single component of the AIQ market timing model was in agreement. Rules that look at price. Rules that look at breadth. Rules that look at volume. Rules that look at momentum. All saying the same thing at the same time.
This is exactly the kind of multi-confirmation environment that the system is designed to identify — and that individual traders, relying on headlines or gut instinct, almost always miss. When prices are making 21-day lows and geopolitical news is negative, the human instinct is to step back. The AIQ system, by contrast, was reading below the surface and identifying that the internal structure of the market was quietly rebuilding.
The Lesson
Price can lie. Headlines always lie. But when multiple independent technical rules — breadth, volume, momentum, phase — all non-confirm a price low at the same time, the market is telling you something important: the selling is exhausted, and the buyers are already at work beneath the surface.
The March 2026 signal sequence is a textbook demonstration of why systematic, rule-based market timing produces results that emotional, discretionary trading cannot replicate. You don’t need to know whether the Iran conflict resolves or whether the Fed changes course. You need to know what the internals of the market are doing — and let a proven system tell you.
On March 18, the system said up. On March 19, it said it again. On March 25, Phase confirmed it. On March 31, rules piled on with a 98-rated exclamation mark.
The traders who followed the signals were on the right side of the move. That’s what systematic market timing is built for.
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