A Low-Risk ETF Trading Strategy

Oct 2, 2026 | Charts

AIQ code based on Markos Katsanos’s article in the October issue of Stocks & Commodities issue, “A Low-Risk ETF Trading Strategy,” is provided in a downloadable code file, available on request from rdencpa@gmail.com. The code is also shown here.

The strategy combines two complementary concepts: Wilder’s relative strength index (RSI) to identify ETFs that have recently declined and may be emerging from a short-term oversold condition, and a custom relative strength indicator to narrow the selection to

Using the EDS file, the trading strategy described in Katsanos’ article can be run. The file needs to be run using a list of only ETFs. I tried the list supplied by the author as well as a longer list. Both lists performed about the same.

! A low-Risk ETF Trading Strategy, TASC Oct 2026
! Author: Markos Katsanos
! Coded by: Richard Denning, 08/11/2026

!ABBREVIATIONS:
C is [close].
V is [volume].

!INPUTS:
timeExit is 30.
RSBARS is 35.
RSCRIT is 3.
MAR is 50.
RSIBARS is 10.
MABARS is 15.
RSIOS is 35.
CORMIN is 0.6.
PRFTGT is 25.
MinVol is 100000.

!INDICATORS:

!RSMK:
IND is tickerUDF("SPY",C).
RS is ln(C/IND) - ln(valresult(C/IND,RSBARS)).
RSMK is expavg(RS,4)*100.

!RSI:
 U  is C-valresult(C,1).
 D  is valresult(C,1)-C.
 L1 is 2 * RSIBARS - 1.
 AvgU  is ExpAvg(iff(U>0,U,0),L1).
 AvgD  is ExpAvg(iff(D>=0,D,0),L1).
 RSI  is 100-(100/(1+(AvgU/AvgD))).

!ROC:
ROC is (C / valresult(C,6) - 1). 
RSMKavg is simpleavg(RSMK,MAR).
hiRSMK is  highresult(RSMK,3,1).
SPYroc is tickerUDF("SPY",ROC).

!PEARSON CORRELATION:
  N is 100.
! 1 BAR RETURNS
  rC is (C / val([close],1) - 1).
  SPYc is TickerUDF("SPY",C).
  SPYrc is (SPYc / valresult(SPYc,1) - 1).
! MEANS
  meanX is simpleavg(rC,N).
  meanY is simpleavg(SPYrc,N).
! STANDARD DEVIATIONS
  stdDx is sqrt(variance(rC,N)).
  stdDy is sqrt(variance(SPYrc,N)).
! COVARIANCE
  covXY is simpleavg((rC - meanX) * (SPYrc - meanY),N).
! PEARSON CORRELATION
  r is covXY / (stdDx * stdDy).				


!ENTRY CONDITIONS:
con1 if simpleavg(V,5) > MinVol.
con2 if RSMK > RSMKavg.
con3 if RSMK > RSCRIT.
con4 if RSMK > highresult(RSMK,3,1).
con5 if RSMK < 25.
con6 if (tickerUDF("SPY",ROC) > -6  and r > CORMIN)
	or (tickerUDF("SPY",ROC) < -6 and r < -CORMIN).
  LLVrsi is lowresult(RSI,20) . 
con7 if lowresult(RSI,20) < RSIOS.
  HHVrsi_1 is highresult(RSI,2,1).
con8 if RSI > highresult(RSI,2,1).
  esa5 is expavg(C,5).
  sma15_5 is valresult(simpleavg(C,MABARS),5).
con9 if expavg(C,5) > valresult(simpleavg(C,MABARS),5).

!EXIT CONDITIONS:
ex1 if RSMK < -RSCRIT and r > 0.8.
ex2 if {Position days} >= timeExit.
ex3 if (C / {Position Entry Price} -1) >= 0.25.

!ENTRY RULE:
Buy if con1 and con2 and con3 and con4 and con5
  and con6 and con7 and con8 and con9.

!EXIT RULE:
Sell if ex1 or ex2 or ex3.

FIGURE 4: AIQ. This shows a summary EDS report as of 4/22/2026, when there were buy signals on QQQ and XLK.

FIGURE 5: AIQ. This demonstrates a recent trade on QQQ with entry on 4/23/2026 (the next day at the open after the buy signal was generated) and an exit on 6/05/2026 (the next day after the exit signal was generated).

—Richard Denning
For AIQ Systems
rdencpa@gmail.com

Chaikin Volatility & Bollinger Bands: Reading Expansion and Contraction Together

Sep 21, 2026 | Charts

Whether you joined us live or couldn’t make it, the full Chaikin Volatility & Bollinger Bands: Reading Expansion and Contraction Together session is now up and ready to watch:

https://aiqeducation.com/bollinger-bands-and-chaikin-volatility/

Quick recap

Steve Hill from AIQ Systems hosted a webinar on using Chaikin Volatility with Bollinger Bands for trading analysis. He explained how Bollinger Bands measure price relative to its recent range and how Chaikin Volatility tracks changes in the daily trading range. Steve demonstrated how combining these indicators can help confirm breakouts and identify potential trend continuations or reversals. He emphasized the importance of a close beyond a Bollinger Band for a valid breakout signal and used live charts of stocks like Apple and SPY to illustrate the concepts. Steve also shared custom indicators he created for Chaikin Volatility and Percentage B, offering to provide these files to attendees. The session concluded with a brief Q&A and the announcement that a recording would be shared.

EDS files used in this event

Download these two EDS files and save to your/wintes32/EDS strategies folder

https://aiqeducation.com/downloads/Chaikins%20Volatility.EDS

To add this indicator to your Charts

• From Charts menu select Charts Settings, Indicator Library, EDS Indicators.
• Select Add and Locate the /wintes32/eds strategies/Chaikins%20Volatility.EDS
• For Indicator Type select One line
• For UDF to plot use Chaikin Volatility

Once you click finish the indicator will be in your Chart lower control panel.

https://aiqeducation.com/downloads/Bollinger%25B.EDS

To add this indicator to your Charts

• From Charts menu select Charts Settings, Indicator Library, EDS Indicators.
• Select Add and Locate the /wintes32/eds strategies/Bollinger%25B.EDS
• For Indicator Type select One line with upper/lower limits
• For UDF to plot use %B
• Upper Limit 1
• Lower Limit 0

Once you click finish the indicator will be in your Chart lower control panel.

Summary

Chaikin Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Steve Hill with AIQ Systems conducted a webinar on Chaikin Volatility and Bollinger Bands, explaining the concepts and their combination for trading analysis. He discussed Bollinger Bands’ measurement of price relative to recent range and the use of percentage B and bandwidth indicators. The session also covered Chaikin Volatility’s relationship to price action and its role in identifying market direction changes or continuations. Steve planned to demonstrate the concepts using live charts, including SPY and DAO30, focusing on breakout definitions and Bollinger Band squeezes.

Bollinger Bands and Chaikin Volatility

Steve explained how to use Bollinger bands in combination with Chaikin volatility to identify trading opportunities. He described three operating parameters for Bollinger bands, including when bands narrow and price breaks above or below a band. Steve noted that rising Chaikin volatility during a band squeeze indicates the compression may end soon and a move may be starting, while flat volatility suggests uncertainty about the trend’s continuation.

Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy

Steve discussed the significance of Bollinger Bands in trading, emphasizing that a price breakout is more reliable when the close is beyond the band rather than just the high or low. He explained that volatility provides confirmation of a breakout, with wider bands indicating higher volatility and potential for continued price movement. Steve also noted that a squeeze occurs when bands compress to their lowest levels during periods of lower volatility.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility Trading

Steve explained how to use Bollinger Bands and Chaikin Volatility to identify market squeezes and potential price movements. He outlined that a Bollinger Band squeeze occurs when the bands narrow to their lowest level over a 3-6 month period, and this compression combined with changes in Chaikin Volatility can signal an upcoming significant price move. Steve recommended using 3-5 bars for trend confirmation in both volatility and price breaks through bands, and demonstrated how to set up these indicators in the trading platform. He used Apple as an example to illustrate how to identify and analyze these patterns in real market data.

Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy

Steve discussed the use of Bollinger Bands and Chaikin Volatility to identify trading opportunities. He explained that a squeeze, indicated by narrowing Bollinger Bands, combined with increasing volatility over the past three to five days, confirms a potential breakout. Steve demonstrated this strategy using examples from Apple and NVIDIA charts, emphasizing that volatility trends are crucial for confirming whether a breakout will continue in the same direction. He also introduced a custom indicator called “Percentage B” to simplify the analysis process and mentioned ongoing work on additional indicators to automate the detection of Bollinger Band squeezes and breakouts.

Trading the Chop

Sep 21, 2026 | Charts

The full session on how to read a range-bound market and trade it on purpose — momentum, breadth, and the boundary rules covered live are all here in the replay above

What’s covered in this session

• Reading the regime — how to confirm a market is genuinely range-bound before you trade it that way.
• Momentum and breadth confirmation — the indicators that tell you a boundary touch is worth acting on.
• Risk management for chop — sizing and exit rules for a market that isn’t trending.

Planes, Trains, and Alphabet

Jul 23, 2026 | Charts

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just changed — Alphabet replaced Verizon on June 29. The Transportation Average changed too — FedEx Freight replaced American Airlines on June 1.

And while the “Industrials” sit at record highs, the Transports are roughly 12% off their peak, hammered by oil back above $100 a barrel.

Charles Dow Had a Name for This

Non-confirmation. It preceded the 1973 top. It preceded the 2000 top.

It also fired plenty of false alarms.

So which is it this time — warning or noise?

Opinions are cheap. Signals are testable. In 45 minutes, Steve Hill shows you how to read this divergence with rules, not guesswork.

What You’ll Walk Away With

01 · The 2026 Dow, Decoded

Exactly what changed in the Dow 30 and TRAN this year, and why “Industrial” is now mostly a nickname — Goldman, Nvidia, and Apple drive this index.

02 · Dow Theory in Plain English

What a DJIA/TRAN non-confirmation actually signals, when it has mattered historically, and when it hasn’t.

03 · The Oil Overlay

Why $100 crude hits the 20 Transports stocks directly (4 airlines, heavy trucking) while barely touching today’s Dow 30 — and making a group of fuel-sensitive names in TradingExpert Pro.

AI Trading Strategy Claude Builds Indicators for ETFs!

Jul 23, 2026 | Charts