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Where We Are

One of the best pieces of advice I ever got was this: “Don’t tell the market what it’s supposed to do, let the market tell you what you’re supposed to do.” That is profound.  And it really makes me wish I could remember the name of the guy who said it.  Sorry dude.  Anyway, whoever and wherever you are, thank you Sir. Think about it for a moment.  Consider all the “forecasts”, “predictions” and “guides” to “what is next for the stock market” that you have heard during the time that you’ve followed the financial markets.  Now consider how many of those actually turned out to be correct.  Chances are the percentage is fairly low. So how do you “let the market tell you what to do?”  Well, like everything else, there are lots of different ways to do it.  Let’s consider a small sampling. Basic Trend-Following Figure 1 displays the Dow Industrials, the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 clockwise form the upper left.  Each displays a 200-day moving average and an overhead resistance point. Figure 1 – Dow/NDX/SPX/RUT (Courtesy WinWayCharts TradingExpert) The goal is to move back above the resistance points and extend the bull market.  But the real key is for them to remain in an “uptrend”, i.e.,: *Price above 200-day MA = GOOD *Price below 200-day MA = BAD Here is the tricky part.  As you can see, a simple cross of the 200-day moving average for any index may or may not be a harbinger of trouble.  That is, there is nothing “magic” about any moving average.  In a perfect world we would...

You asked for it – Early bird extended WinWayCharts April 17 seminar HURRY

You asked for it – Early bird extended WinWayCharts seminar    April 17 full day seminar ( Wealth Training offices in London) Must signup this week to lock in the low low price   Seats are limited and are filling up fast. Don’t hesitate, fast track your way to trading success PLUS special EARLY BIRD pricing has been extended at your request, if you reserve your seat in the next 5 days you’ll get the early bird price locked in. ONLY $650 $499 a $150 saving includes entire seminar manual in PDF More seminar information available at

An Obscure but Potentially Useful Oversold Indicator

Trend-following is essentially a “tried and true’ approach to investing.  But overbought/oversold (i.e., attempting to buy low/sell high) – that’s where the “excitement” is.  Of course, when it comes to trading and investing, “excitement” can be highly overrated.  Nevertheless, in this piece I want to talk about a relatively obscure indicator that may be useful in identifying vastly oversold situations.   EDITORS NOTE: The WinWay EDS file for Jay Kaeppel’s indicator is available to download here     The VixRSI14 Indicator   Part of the reason this indicator is obscure is because I think I “invented” it – but only by mashing together an indicator from Larry Williams and an indicator from Welles Wilder.  The first part is the standard Welles Wilder 14-day Relative Strength Index, more commonly referred to as “RSI”.   The 2nd part of VixRSI14 is an indicator created by famed trader Larry Williams which he dubbed “VixFix”.  This indicator is an effort to create a “Vix Index-like” indicator for any security.   WinWay TradingExpert code for these indicators appears at the end of the article.   A Few Notes   *For the record, VixRSI14 is calculated by taking a 3-day exponential average of VixFix and dividing that by a 3-day exponential average of RSI14 (are we having fun yet?).  Please see code at the end of the article.   *I prefer to use VixRSI14 using weekly data rather than daily data   *(Unfortunately) There are no “magic numbers” that indicate that a completely risk-free, you can’t lose, just buy now and watch the money roll in” buying opportunity is at hand (Disclaimer: If there was, I would probably just...

Buy Low(?)

There are a lot of ways to play this game. For the record, I am a big believer in trend-following.  Picking tops and bottoms with any consistency is essentially impossible (at least in my opinion and/or experience).  So from that perspective going with the trend makes a lot of sense.  I am also a big believer in relative strength.  Much evidence over the years suggests that buying what is “already moving” is a very viable approach to investing.  Other studies have demonstrated pretty clearly that you are generally much more likely to succeed by buying stocks making new highs than by buying stocks making new lows. These approaches make good sense and they work very well over time.  Despite this many (most?) investors still feel those pangs to “buy low” in hopes of getting in early and riding a major trend.  And the truth (I think) is that this can work too, if done correctly. Like I said, there are a lot of ways to play this game.  But there is a definite “right” way and “wrong” way when it comes to “buying low.” Buying Low (The Wrong Way): Buy things are plummeting or that have recently plummeted. The Right Way (The Right Way): Buy things that have, a) plummeted, b) stopped plummeting and, c) have since been moving sideways for some period of time. Last year I wrote about a “Buy Low” portfolio that I had concocted at the time.  Unfortunately, several of the ETFs involved have since ceased trading.  So in this piece I will introduce my updated “Buy Low” portfolio.  For the record – and as...

Lines in the Sand; The Bonds, REIT and MLP Edition

Last week I wrote an article purporting to highlight significant levels of support and resistance across a variety of financial markets.  Well, it turns out there are more. More Notes on “Lines” I certainly look at the markets more from the “technical” side than the “fundamental” side (not even a conscious choice really – I just never really had much success buying things based on fundamentals. That doesn’t mean I think fundamentals are useless or that they don’t “work” – they just didn’t work for me). Once I settled on the technical side of things, I started reading books about technical analysis.  All the classics.  I learned about chart patterns and trend lines.  By definition, a trend line is a line drawn on a price chart that connects two or more successive lows or highs. And then I got to work looking through charts and applying everything that I thought I had learned. And like a lot of “newbie” technicians – and a surprising number of seasoned ones – I typically ended up drawing “lines on charts” that would resemble something like what you see in Figure 1. Figure 1 – “Important” trend lines (or not?) (Courtesy TradingExpert) For a technical analyst this is sort of the equivalent of “throwing up” on a chart (and the real pisser was that back  in the day a fresh updated booklet of charts would show up in the mail each week – so you had to “throw up’ all over all the charts again and redraw every #$^& “important” line!!). At some point I realized that perhaps every “important” line that I was...

Harness your trading potential – using Darren Winters preferred trading software

Harness your trading potential April 26, 2018 Join us at Wealth Training offices for a full day seminar using  WinWayCharts Darren Winters preferred trading software ​​​​​​​ New to WinWayCharts or a veteran looking for a refresher, this seminar is for you. We’ll be covering in detail the application of Darren Winters indicators and strategies within the trading software and taking you through some of the powerful tools that will make your analysis easier and save you time. Now more than ever, stock traders need an edge to successfully trade stocks We really don’t care if the market goes up or down. With the right tools, used the right way, there are always opportunities to make money trading stocks. In this full-day seminar, Steve Hill, founder of WInWayCharts, will start at the top with the powerful Market Analysis tools, Sector Rotation and Stock Selection, plus he’ll recap technical indicators that Darren uses and reveal additional confirming indicators that are essential for making good trading decisions, . All of this will build up to developing a trading strategy that suits your trading style. Finally he’ll take you through trade execution and trade management with live market action and trades. With this traders blueprint, you’ll have the tools you need to take your trading efficiency to a new level.     Rare opportunity to spend the day with WinWayCharts founder Steve Hill Those of you have had an opportunity to spend time with Steve at sessions at Wealth Training will appreciate his broad and in-depth knowledge and experience in trading analysis. Darren and Steve have worked together to develop and improve the WinWayCharts software throughout the last 10 years. Today the WinWayCharts platform is...

A Simple Indicator for Traders

First the Bad News: There are no “magic bullets” when it comes to trading.  There are people in this industry who have literally tested somewhere in the range of six bazillion “indicators” – give or take (“Hi. My name is Jay”).  Every trend following indicator looks like a gold mine when it latches onto a huge trend and rides it (but not so much when it starts getting whipsawed).  And every overbought/oversold indicator looks like a gift from heaven from time to time when it somehow manages to peak (or valley) and then reverses right at a high (or low).  And then the next time the thing gets oversold the security in question just keeps plunging and the previously “amazingly accurate” indicator just gets more and more oversold. Bottom line: what I am about to discuss is likely no better or worse than a lot of other indicators.  And it is no holy grail.  Still, I kinda like it – or whatever that is worth. EDITORS NOTE an WinWay EDS file for this indicator with the 3 step rules outlined can be downloaded from here you will need to copy or save this file into your wintes32/eds strategies folder. Alternatively the code is available at the end of this article for copying and pasting into a new EDS file. UpDays20 I call this indicator UpDays20 and I stole, er, learned it originally from Tom McClellan of McLellan Financial Publications.  My calculation may be slightly different because I wanted an indicator that can go both positive and negative. For a given security look at its trading gains and losses over the latest 20 trading days....

Successful Trading: Developing a Mindset and Process

“The WinWay Charts Candlestick Piercing bullish buy signal on Sept 6, 2017, worked out well so far on Southwest Airlines”  Steve Hill, founder WinWay Charts Ready to take your apprentice training and put it into action in WinWay Charts? Join me October 12, 2017  – Central London Reserve your seat now for this full-day seminar It’s the final piece in your stock trading armoury Steve Hill, is the founder and President of WinWay Charts, Darren Winters preferred trading software. A native Londoner, Steve has over 25 years experience as both a trading analysis software developer and trading educator. He has trained countless clients in the disciplined analysis and trading mindset necessary to successfully trade in today’s markets. Using WinWay Charts, he’ll take you through the entire process from analysis, stock selection, trade execution and trade management. With this traders blueprint, you’ll have the tools you need to take your trading efficiency to a new level.   Market insights only available  WinWay Charts ​​​​​​​ The Dow and NASDAQ are at or near the highs but the broader market indicators are signaling something else. Steve will show you how to use the built-in market analysis tools in WinWay Charts to gain in-depth analysis, ​​​​​​​ Rare opportunity to spend the day with WinWay Charts founder Those of you have had an opportunity to spend time with Steve at sessions in Wealth Training offices in Bermondsey or at apprentice sessions in Guernsey will will appreciate his broad and in-depth knowledge and experience in trading analysis. You’ll need to be on your toes for this seminar. Every session is designed to enhance your current trading skill and take you to...