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Buy Low(?)

There are a lot of ways to play this game. For the record, I am a big believer in trend-following.  Picking tops and bottoms with any consistency is essentially impossible (at least in my opinion and/or experience).  So from that perspective going with the trend makes a lot of sense.  I am also a big believer in relative strength.  Much evidence over the years suggests that buying what is “already moving” is a very viable approach to investing.  Other studies have demonstrated pretty clearly that you are generally much more likely to succeed by buying stocks making new highs than by buying stocks making new lows. These approaches make good sense and they work very well over time.  Despite this many (most?) investors still feel those pangs to “buy low” in hopes of getting in early and riding a major trend.  And the truth (I think) is that this can work too, if done correctly. Like I said, there are a lot of ways to play this game.  But there is a definite “right” way and “wrong” way when it comes to “buying low.” Buying Low (The Wrong Way): Buy things are plummeting or that have recently plummeted. The Right Way (The Right Way): Buy things that have, a) plummeted, b) stopped plummeting and, c) have since been moving sideways for some period of time. Last year I wrote about a “Buy Low” portfolio that I had concocted at the time.  Unfortunately, several of the ETFs involved have since ceased trading.  So in this piece I will introduce my updated “Buy Low” portfolio.  For the record – and as...

Lines in the Sand; The Bonds, REIT and MLP Edition

Last week I wrote an article purporting to highlight significant levels of support and resistance across a variety of financial markets.  Well, it turns out there are more. More Notes on “Lines” I certainly look at the markets more from the “technical” side than the “fundamental” side (not even a conscious choice really – I just never really had much success buying things based on fundamentals. That doesn’t mean I think fundamentals are useless or that they don’t “work” – they just didn’t work for me). Once I settled on the technical side of things, I started reading books about technical analysis.  All the classics.  I learned about chart patterns and trend lines.  By definition, a trend line is a line drawn on a price chart that connects two or more successive lows or highs. And then I got to work looking through charts and applying everything that I thought I had learned. And like a lot of “newbie” technicians – and a surprising number of seasoned ones – I typically ended up drawing “lines on charts” that would resemble something like what you see in Figure 1. Figure 1 – “Important” trend lines (or not?) (Courtesy TradingExpert) For a technical analyst this is sort of the equivalent of “throwing up” on a chart (and the real pisser was that back  in the day a fresh updated booklet of charts would show up in the mail each week – so you had to “throw up’ all over all the charts again and redraw every #$^& “important” line!!). At some point I realized that perhaps every “important” line that I was...

Harness your trading potential – using Darren Winters preferred trading software

Harness your trading potential April 26, 2018 Join us at Wealth Training offices for a full day seminar using  WinWayCharts Darren Winters preferred trading software ​​​​​​​ New to WinWayCharts or a veteran looking for a refresher, this seminar is for you. We’ll be covering in detail the application of Darren Winters indicators and strategies within the trading software and taking you through some of the powerful tools that will make your analysis easier and save you time. Now more than ever, stock traders need an edge to successfully trade stocks We really don’t care if the market goes up or down. With the right tools, used the right way, there are always opportunities to make money trading stocks. In this full-day seminar, Steve Hill, founder of WInWayCharts, will start at the top with the powerful Market Analysis tools, Sector Rotation and Stock Selection, plus he’ll recap technical indicators that Darren uses and reveal additional confirming indicators that are essential for making good trading decisions, . All of this will build up to developing a trading strategy that suits your trading style. Finally he’ll take you through trade execution and trade management with live market action and trades. With this traders blueprint, you’ll have the tools you need to take your trading efficiency to a new level.     Rare opportunity to spend the day with WinWayCharts founder Steve Hill Those of you have had an opportunity to spend time with Steve at sessions at Wealth Training will appreciate his broad and in-depth knowledge and experience in trading analysis. Darren and Steve have worked together to develop and improve the WinWayCharts software throughout the last 10 years. Today the WinWayCharts platform is...

A Simple Indicator for Traders

First the Bad News: There are no “magic bullets” when it comes to trading.  There are people in this industry who have literally tested somewhere in the range of six bazillion “indicators” – give or take (“Hi. My name is Jay”).  Every trend following indicator looks like a gold mine when it latches onto a huge trend and rides it (but not so much when it starts getting whipsawed).  And every overbought/oversold indicator looks like a gift from heaven from time to time when it somehow manages to peak (or valley) and then reverses right at a high (or low).  And then the next time the thing gets oversold the security in question just keeps plunging and the previously “amazingly accurate” indicator just gets more and more oversold. Bottom line: what I am about to discuss is likely no better or worse than a lot of other indicators.  And it is no holy grail.  Still, I kinda like it – or whatever that is worth. EDITORS NOTE an WinWay EDS file for this indicator with the 3 step rules outlined can be downloaded from here you will need to copy or save this file into your wintes32/eds strategies folder. Alternatively the code is available at the end of this article for copying and pasting into a new EDS file. UpDays20 I call this indicator UpDays20 and I stole, er, learned it originally from Tom McClellan of McLellan Financial Publications.  My calculation may be slightly different because I wanted an indicator that can go both positive and negative. For a given security look at its trading gains and losses over the latest 20 trading days....

Successful Trading: Developing a Mindset and Process

“The WinWay Charts Candlestick Piercing bullish buy signal on Sept 6, 2017, worked out well so far on Southwest Airlines”  Steve Hill, founder WinWay Charts Ready to take your apprentice training and put it into action in WinWay Charts? Join me October 12, 2017  – Central London Reserve your seat now for this full-day seminar It’s the final piece in your stock trading armoury Steve Hill, is the founder and President of WinWay Charts, Darren Winters preferred trading software. A native Londoner, Steve has over 25 years experience as both a trading analysis software developer and trading educator. He has trained countless clients in the disciplined analysis and trading mindset necessary to successfully trade in today’s markets. Using WinWay Charts, he’ll take you through the entire process from analysis, stock selection, trade execution and trade management. With this traders blueprint, you’ll have the tools you need to take your trading efficiency to a new level.   Market insights only available  WinWay Charts ​​​​​​​ The Dow and NASDAQ are at or near the highs but the broader market indicators are signaling something else. Steve will show you how to use the built-in market analysis tools in WinWay Charts to gain in-depth analysis, ​​​​​​​ Rare opportunity to spend the day with WinWay Charts founder Those of you have had an opportunity to spend time with Steve at sessions in Wealth Training offices in Bermondsey or at apprentice sessions in Guernsey will will appreciate his broad and in-depth knowledge and experience in trading analysis. You’ll need to be on your toes for this seminar. Every session is designed to enhance your current trading skill and take you to...

The TradingExpert Market Log

In your WinWay TradingExpert or TradingExpert Pro package, look for the icon for Reports and open it. The Market Log is toward the bottom of the list on the left. Trading and investing becomes clearer when you’re armed with this snapshot of the market and SP 500 stocks every day. – AI rating on the market and how long it has been in place – AI rating on all Sp 500 stocks percentage showing up ratings vs down ratings – Bullish vs bearish levels on the market on multiple techncial indicators – Bullish vs bearish percentage of SP 500 groups trending up vs down and the change from prior day – Bullish vs bearish levels summary for all the SP 500 stocks on multiple...

Markos Katsanos’s “Trading The Loonie”

Here is some code for use in AIQ based on Markos Katsanos’s article in this issue, “Trading The Loonie.” The code and EDS file can be downloaded from www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm. The code I am providing contains both the divergence indicator and a long-only trading system for the NASDAQ 100 list of stocks. Rather than trading forex, I wanted to try the divergence idea and the author’s entry rules on the NASDAQ 100 stocks. The stocks are traded long using the author’s entry rules with two of the parameters adjusted as shown at the top of the code file. The exit has been changed completely to use a profit protect (protect 50% of profits once a 20% profit is reached), a stop-loss (protect 75% of capital), and a time-stop exit (exit after 21 days). I used the NASDAQ 100 index (NDX) in place of the crude oil futures. The assumption is that since the stocks on the list are all in the NDX, they would generally be correlated to the index. The author’s entry rule filters out those with a negative correlation to the index. Note that I changed the minimum correlation from a -0.4 to 0.0. In addition, I found that increasing the minimum divergence from 20 to 2,000 increased the Sharpe ratio and decreased the maximum drawdown without affecting the annualized return. Figure 6 shows the equity curve versus the NASDAQ 100 index for the period 1/5/2000 to 10/14/2015. Figure 7 shows the metrics for this same test period. The system clearly outperformed the index. FIGURE 6: AIQ. Here is a sample equity curve for the modified divergence system...