Jun 18, 2012 | Uncategorized
The AIQ code for the monthly moving average and related system described in “Trading High-Yield Bonds Using ETFs” by Brooke Gardner in this issue is provided at the website noted below.
Although this is a simple moving average system, the use of the monthly data series presented a challenge, since the EDS module of the AIQ software does not provide access to a monthly bar. The charting module does support the monthly chart, but in the EDS code, the monthly bar cannot be accessed directly.
I tried two different approaches, and both seemed to work. The first one involved creating a monthly data series by downloading a monthly .csv file from Yahoo! Finance and then importing the data file into a newly created ticker using the DTU import utility. This worked but proved to be too much effort if I wanted to get several bond funds. In addition, the update would have to be done manually. To use this data file, we set the input “UseMoDataFile” to 1. Then I tried coding up a monthly close using daily data files. This took a bit of code but any daily data file will work, without modification, with this approach. To use a daily data file, set the “UseMoDataFile” to zero.
The other input parameter allows us to find the end of the month when using a daily data file. As one option, you could use the first day of the new month as the signal day by setting “UseEndOfMonthC” to zero. However, for backtesting and also to match the author’s approach, I set the “UseEndOfMonthC” to “1” so that we get the signals from the last bar of the month. In the EDS file for the backtest, I then enter on the open of the first bar of the month.
Figure 8 shows a daily chart of VVR with an eight-month moving average.
This code and EDS file can be downloaded from www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm. (The code is also shown below.
!TRADING HIGH-YIELD BONDS USING ETFs
!Author: Brooke Gardner
!Coded by: Richard Denning 04/17/12
!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com
!INPUTS:
UseMoDataFile is 0.
UseEndOfMonthC is 1.
!ABBREVIATIONS:
C is [close].
O is [open].
C1 is valresult(C,1).
OSD is offsettodate(month(),day(),year()).
SMA8 is simpleavg(C,8).
HD if hasdatafor(21*8+5)>= 21*8.
Mo is month().
Mo1 is valresult(month(),1).
NewMo if Mo <> Mo1.
OneMoBackDate is scanany(NewMo,25,1).
OneMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,1) then OSD.
TwoMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,^OneMoBackOS+1) then OSD.
ThreeMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,^TwoMoBackOS+1) then OSD.
FourMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,^ThreeMoBackOS+1) then OSD.
FiveMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,^FourMoBackOS+1) then OSD.
SixMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,^FiveMoBackOS+1) then OSD.
SevenMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,^SixMoBackOS+1) then OSD.
EightMoBackOS is scanany(NewMo,25,^SevenMoBackOS+1) then OSD.
Cm is iff(UseEndOfMonthC = 1,C1,C).
MonC1 is valresult(Cm,^OneMoBackOS).
MonC2 is valresult(Cm,^TwoMoBackOS).
MonC3 is valresult(Cm,^ThreeMoBackOS).
MonC4 is valresult(Cm,^FourMoBackOS).
MonC5 is valresult(Cm,^FiveMoBackOS).
MonC6 is valresult(Cm,^SixMoBackOS).
MonC7 is valresult(Cm,^SevenMoBackOS).
MonC8 is valresult(Cm,^EightMoBackOS).
Cmo is iff(NewMo,Cm,MonC1).
Cmo1 is iff(NewMo,MonC1,MonC2).
Cmo2 is iff(NewMo,MonC2,MonC3).
Cmo3 is iff(NewMo,MonC3,MonC4).
Cmo4 is iff(NewMo,MonC4,MonC5).
Cmo5 is iff(NewMo,MonC5,MonC6).
Cmo6 is iff(NewMo,MonC6,MonC7).
Cmo7 is iff(NewMo,MonC7,MonC8).
EightMoSMA is iff(UseMoDataFile=0,(Cmo+Cmo1+Cmo2+Cmo3+Cmo4+Cmo5+Cmo6+Cmo7)/8,SMA8).
Buy if Cmo > EightMoSMA and HD.
Sell if Cmo < EightMoSMA and HD.
ListValues if 1.
Jun 12, 2012 | Uncategorized
For the first time Richard Muller, AIQ TradingExpert Pro expert, discretionary trader and former Reuters TV star, will be teaching a full day in person option seminar with LIVE TRADING, June 18th, 2012
We’d kept the details of this unique seminar under wraps, why? Because we limit the number of attendees at all of our events. Small audience equals more personal attention for attendees. We don’t pack 50 in a room it just doesn’t work. Knowing how quickly we’d fill up this exclusive event, we’d decided we weren’t even going to announce the event, and just let word of mouth spread.
Too late now, but the good news is you’re among the first to hear about this full day options training with live trading. So there’s still a chance you can get in and reserve your seat.
Now we know what you’re thinking. Full-day seminar on options training, with live trading, taught by Richard Muller, the Richard Muller, it’s going to cost a bomb. 1995 GBP that’s our regular price for two day seminars, so a one day seminar would have to be at least 900 GBP right? Normally yes. A full day of option training capped with live trading in person with Richard Muller 990 GBP is the going rate.
However, Richard is on fire! When Richard’s on fire, his trading is going well and like any successful trader, he wants to share the secret recipe of his success with other traders.
That’s when Richard dropped the bombshell. 195 GBP, that’s about $300.
Yes you heard correctly 195 GBP for a full day of options training and live trading. That’s it. I think you’ll agree that’s a steal.
There’s only one caveat. When we run out of seats, the offer’s closed. We don’t want more than a dozen or so people, and the places are filling up fast. Act now or you’ll miss out.
P.S.
We don’t know when Richard will repeat this offer again. This could be the only opportunity for a while.
Jun 7, 2012 | Uncategorized
At today’s Market Prism webinar Richard Muller uncovered a host of stock and option plays for the long and short side of the market. Talk about net neutral. Richard also reviewed the prior Market Prism webinars and the short list of candidates he uncovered to see how they were performing. Doing very well was the verdict, even in these difficult market conditions. ****** The option selections were particularly impressive ******
All analysis is undertaken using AIQ TradingExpert Pro. Richard uses Market Timing, Sector and Stock Expert Ratings with Phase confirmation. He uses support and resistance moving averages and trendlines. The Quotes/barometer area is used for his trading list of candidates. He also uses AIQ Reports, the Market Log, Signal Review and more.
Watch the recording at http://connectpro39608568.adobeconnect.com/p6b93r5y7vi/
May 31, 2012 | Uncategorized
If you attended the May 30th Market Prism session, we hoped you gained some insight into the market and possible stock and options setups. If you missed the session, don’t worry, Richard has made available the recording.
In this 40 minute session, Richard covered the big picture market review of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Index. This was followed by Sector rotation review: A detail look at the sectors to spot the ones where there is strength, and weakness.
Click on this link to view the recording http://connectpro39608568.adobeconnect.com/p7fb34oamc9/
May 21, 2012 | Uncategorized
Complimentary access to Richard Muller’s Market Analysis at the Trading Prism webinar Wed May 23rd, 2pm eastern, 7pm London.
Currently Richard Muller is a Proprietary Trader, Senior Instructor at The Trading Prism, and former global equities analyst with Thomson Reuters, where he delivered investment ideas on the Reuters Insider financial TV channel.
Agenda
- Big picture market review of the S&P 500, Nasdaq Comp, and the Dow Jones Index. What the expert ratings are telling us of where the market might be heading next – FREE ACCESS
- Sector rotation review: A detail look at the sectors to spot the ones where there is strength, and weakness – SUBSCRIBER ACCESS ONLY
- Individual stock trading strategies discussed: A look at potential trade ideas to add to your watch list – SUBSCRIBER ACCESS ONLY
- Review of prior weeks potential trade ideas that we added to watch list – SUBSCRIBER ACCESS ONLY
Login information
http://connectpro39608568.adobeconnect.com/marketprism/
Click on this link and login as a guest at 7pm London, 2pm eastern.
May 9, 2012 | Uncategorized
If you attended Richard Muller’s May 9th session, we hoped you gained some insight into the market and possible stock and options setups. If you missed the session, don’t worry, Richard has made available the recording.
In this 70 minute session, Richard covered the big picture market review of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Index. This was followed by Sector rotation review: A detail look at the sectors to spot the ones where there is strength, and weakness. Richard then identified individual stock and option trading ideas.
Click on this link to view the recording http://connectpro39608568.adobeconnect.com/p9dhqqg0sjw/
May 7, 2012 | Uncategorized
Steve Palmquist.
When the market is resting, like it did last week, I set up the alerts function that my broker provides to text my iPhone when the market moves either above or below the resting area. When I get the text message I look at the market to see if trading is warranted. In this case I was notified when the market made a move on Friday. I looked at the market chart on my iPhone, determined that no swing trades were warranted, because I was focused on longs and the market had moved down a bit. This process takes just a few minutes and can be done from almost anywhere; or with a brief break, in most any job. New traders often make this too hard, they want to watch the market all day, afraid they will miss something. Sending the alerts to a cell phone, for both stock triggers and key market levels, allows traders to work on other things and just take a look at the market when something interesting happens. If I am too busy to get to the computer I do not worry about it; any decent move does not require you to be in on the first day, almost by definition. All of my backtesting research for the trading tools I use, and the ones published in my books was done using end of day data; trades were entered at the open the day after the trigger. Again, this illustrates that one does not need to watch the market all day. In fact, it seems that the more people watch the market the worse they do. They start making emotional decisions rather than data based decisions. I am trading patterns in market environments in which they have demonstrated interesting results. There is no emotion in trading a pattern, it is either there or it is not. The stock has either moved above the trigger price, or it has not. The market is either in an appropriate environment for trading or it is not.
Trading should be data driven, not based on emotion, wishful thinking, or hot tips from TV hosts. To be data driven one needs to test and analyze trading tools and find out what really works, and when each tool should be used. Traders must understand which tool to use for a specific task, and have a clear understanding of how the tool works, and what can and cannot be done with it. I have extensively tested several trading systems, the results of this testing on specific trading trading tools are outlined in ‘How to Take Money from the Markets’, and Money-Making Candlestick Patterns. The testing process helps us understand how stocks usually behave after forming a specific pattern such as being outside the Bollinger Bands, showing strong distribution or accumulation, or pulling back or retracing during a trend. Understanding what a stock is most likely to do forms the beginning of a trading strategy. Trading without this information is taking unknown risks.
May 5, 2012 | Uncategorized
The AIQ code for Walid Khalil’s sentiment zone oscillator and related system from his article in this issue, “Sentiment Zone Oscillator,” is provided at www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm.
Using the author’s system that is described in the article, I ran a test on the NASDAQ 100 list of stocks using the Portfolio Manager module. The following capitalization settings were used:
- Maximum of 10 open positions
- Size each position at 10% of mark-to-market total capital
- Take no more than three new positions per day
- Compute the mark-to-market capital each day
- Choose signals based on a relative strength indicator for ranking in descending order for longs.
In Figure 9, I show the equity curve for long-only trading on the NASDAQ 100 list of stocks for the period 12/31/1999 to 3/16/2012. The return averaged 10.3% per year with a maximum drawdown of 56.5% on 3/9/2009. The trend filters that are applied to each stock in the system did not prevent the large drawdown during the two bear markets in the test period. Applying an index-based trend filter might improve the results, but I did not try this due to time constraints.
The code and EDS file can be downloaded from www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm and is also shown here.
!SENTIMENT ZONE OSCILLATOR
!Author: Walid Khailil, TASC May 2012
!Coded by: Richard Denning 3/14/12
!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com
!ABBREVIATIONS:
C is [close].
C1 is valresult(C,1).
H is [high].
L is [low].
O is [open].
V is [volume].
avgV is expavg(V,50).
smaC is simpleavg(C,10).
!INPUTS:
szoLen is 14. !SZO PARAMETER
trendEMAlen is 60. !LENTH FOR TREND DETERMINATION
longLen is 30. !LONG PERIOD SMOOTHING FOR SZO
percent is 95. !PERCENTAGE OF RANGE
sellLevel is 7.
filter is 0.24.
!SZO OSCILLATOR:
R is iff(C > C1,1,-1).
rEMA is expavg(R,szoLen).
rTEMA is (3*rEMA) - (3*expavg(rEMA,szoLen))
+ (expavg(expavg(rEMA,szoLen),szoLen)).
SZO is 100*(rTEMA / szoLen).
szoHLP is highresult(SZO,longLen).
szoLLP is lowresult(SZO,longLen).
szoRng is szoHLP - szoLLP.
szoPctRng is szoRng * (percent/100).
szoOB is szoLLP + szoPctRng.
szoOS is szoHLP - szoPctRng.
szoMA is simpleavg(szo,longLen).
EMAtrend is expavg(C,trendEMAlen).
!SZO TRADING SYSTEM RULES:
!BUYING CONDITION RULES:
SZOmaXOzero if szoMA > filter
and not valrule(szoMA > filter,1).
TrendUp if C > EMAtrend.
SZOovrSld if SZO < szoOS.
SZOmaUp if SZO > valresult(SZO,1).
SZOgtZero if SZO > 0.
SZOxoLLP if valrule(SZOovrSld,1) and not SZOovrSld.
EMAUp if EMAtrend > valresult(EMAtrend,1).
BuyCond1 if SZOmaXOzero and TrendUP.
BuyCond2 if TrendUp and SZOovrSld
and szoMA > valresult(szoMA,1).
BuyCond3 if SZOgtZero and SZOxoLLP and EMAUp.
Buy if BuyCond1 or BuyCond2 or BuyCond3.
!SELLING CONDITION RULES:
SellCond1 if szoMA < -filter
and not valrule(szoMA < -filter,1).
SellCond2 if szo < sellLevel
and not valrule(szo < sellLevel,1)
and szoMA < valresult(szoMA,1).
Sell if SellCond1 or SellCond2.
!RELATIVE STRENGTH UDF FOR SELECTING TRADES:
STL is 32. !RELATIVE STRENGTH LENGTH
Price1 is C. Price2 is C.
aL is STL * 0.25.
RC3 is (valresult(Price1,3*aL)/valresult(Price2,4*aL)-1)*100.
RC2 is (valresult(Price1,2*aL)/valresult(Price2,3*aL)-1)*100.
RC1 is (valresult(Price1,1*aL)/valresult(Price2,2*aL)-1)*100.
RC0 is (valresult(Price1,0*aL)/valresult(Price2,1*aL)-1)*100.
RS_AIQs is 0.4*RC0 + 0.2*RC1 + 0.2*RC2 + 0.2*RC3.
ShowValues if C > 0.
May 5, 2012 | Uncategorized
The AIQ code for Walid Khalil’s sentiment zone oscillator and related system from his article in this issue, “Sentiment Zone Oscillator,” is provided at www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm.
Using the author’s system that is described in the article, I ran a test on the NASDAQ 100 list of stocks using the Portfolio Manager module. The following capitalization settings were used:
- Maximum of 10 open positions
- Size each position at 10% of mark-to-market total capital
- Take no more than three new positions per day
- Compute the mark-to-market capital each day
- Choose signals based on a relative strength indicator for ranking in descending order for longs.
In Figure 9, I show the equity curve for long-only trading on the NASDAQ 100 list of stocks for the period 12/31/1999 to 3/16/2012. The return averaged 10.3% per year with a maximum drawdown of 56.5% on 3/9/2009. The trend filters that are applied to each stock in the system did not prevent the large drawdown during the two bear markets in the test period. Applying an index-based trend filter might improve the results, but I did not try this due to time constraints.
The code and EDS file can be downloaded from www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm and is also shown here.
!SENTIMENT ZONE OSCILLATOR
!Author: Walid Khailil, TASC May 2012
!Coded by: Richard Denning 3/14/12
!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com
!ABBREVIATIONS:
C is [close].
C1 is valresult(C,1).
H is [high].
L is [low].
O is [open].
V is [volume].
avgV is expavg(V,50).
smaC is simpleavg(C,10).
!INPUTS:
szoLen is 14. !SZO PARAMETER
trendEMAlen is 60. !LENTH FOR TREND DETERMINATION
longLen is 30. !LONG PERIOD SMOOTHING FOR SZO
percent is 95. !PERCENTAGE OF RANGE
sellLevel is 7.
filter is 0.24.
!SZO OSCILLATOR:
R is iff(C > C1,1,-1).
rEMA is expavg(R,szoLen).
rTEMA is (3*rEMA) - (3*expavg(rEMA,szoLen))
+ (expavg(expavg(rEMA,szoLen),szoLen)).
SZO is 100*(rTEMA / szoLen).
szoHLP is highresult(SZO,longLen).
szoLLP is lowresult(SZO,longLen).
szoRng is szoHLP - szoLLP.
szoPctRng is szoRng * (percent/100).
szoOB is szoLLP + szoPctRng.
szoOS is szoHLP - szoPctRng.
szoMA is simpleavg(szo,longLen).
EMAtrend is expavg(C,trendEMAlen).
!SZO TRADING SYSTEM RULES:
!BUYING CONDITION RULES:
SZOmaXOzero if szoMA > filter
and not valrule(szoMA > filter,1).
TrendUp if C > EMAtrend.
SZOovrSld if SZO < szoOS.
SZOmaUp if SZO > valresult(SZO,1).
SZOgtZero if SZO > 0.
SZOxoLLP if valrule(SZOovrSld,1) and not SZOovrSld.
EMAUp if EMAtrend > valresult(EMAtrend,1).
BuyCond1 if SZOmaXOzero and TrendUP.
BuyCond2 if TrendUp and SZOovrSld
and szoMA > valresult(szoMA,1).
BuyCond3 if SZOgtZero and SZOxoLLP and EMAUp.
Buy if BuyCond1 or BuyCond2 or BuyCond3.
!SELLING CONDITION RULES:
SellCond1 if szoMA < -filter
and not valrule(szoMA < -filter,1).
SellCond2 if szo < sellLevel
and not valrule(szo < sellLevel,1)
and szoMA < valresult(szoMA,1).
Sell if SellCond1 or SellCond2.
!RELATIVE STRENGTH UDF FOR SELECTING TRADES:
STL is 32. !RELATIVE STRENGTH LENGTH
Price1 is C. Price2 is C.
aL is STL * 0.25.
RC3 is (valresult(Price1,3*aL)/valresult(Price2,4*aL)-1)*100.
RC2 is (valresult(Price1,2*aL)/valresult(Price2,3*aL)-1)*100.
RC1 is (valresult(Price1,1*aL)/valresult(Price2,2*aL)-1)*100.
RC0 is (valresult(Price1,0*aL)/valresult(Price2,1*aL)-1)*100.
RS_AIQs is 0.4*RC0 + 0.2*RC1 + 0.2*RC2 + 0.2*RC3.
ShowValues if C > 0.
May 1, 2012 | Uncategorized
Richard Muller, a longtime TradingExpert Pro client, former Reuters TV Equity Analyst and now senior instructor at The Trading Prism has made available the recording of his Tuesday May 1, 2012 webinar.
In this 80 minute session, Richard covered the big picture market review of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Index. This was followed by Sector rotation review: A detail look at the sectors to spot the ones where there is strength, and weakness. Richard then identified 10 Individual stock and option trading ideas. Finally he reviewed AAPL and possible plays going forward.
Click on this link to view the recording http://connectpro39608568.adobeconnect.com/p4l7x9ye6m4/
English