The bond market was very quiet in the 3rd quarter. Figure 1 displays ticker IEF (7-10 year treasuries ETF) in the to clip and ticker AGG (Aggregate Bond Index ETF) in the bottom clip.
Essentially the entire bond market has been flat since early June. The market seems to be assuming that “the Fed will take of everything” and keep interest rates low and stable for the foreseeable future so…..ZZZZZZZZ.
But this type of activity often breeds complacency. I am not making any predictions here but I do want to raise a question that investors might wish to ponder, i.e., “what would be more shocking that a spike in interest rates?” OK, yes, I realize it is 2020 and it is pretty much hard to be shocked by anything anymore. But still, on a relative basis how many investors are even thinking about the potential risk of higher interest rates at the moment?
Could it Happen?
The Bond Market VIX (ticker MOVE) recently fell to its lowest level ever (before spiking sharply higher on 10/5/20). As you can see in Figure 2 this type of “quietness” often precedes a significant move in the bond market. For the record, low readings in MOVE can be followed by large up moves in price as easily as large down moves in price. So, a low MOVE reading is not “bearish” per se, but rather merely suggests that we are experiencing the “calm before the storm.”
So why is my “Spidey sense” tingling? Figure 3 displays the yield on 30-year treasuries (ticker TYX) on the bottom and an indicator I refer to as VFAA on the bottom (the calculation appears at the end of this piece). VFAA is a derivative on a Larry William’s indicator he calls VixFix.
Figure 3 – 30-year treasury yields with VFAA suggesting a potential bottoming area (Courtesy TradingExpert)
As you can see in Figure 3, peaks in the VFAA indicator often occur near intermediate term lows in bond yields (reminder: bond prices move inversely to yield, so a bottom in interest rates indicates a top in bond prices). As you can also see on the far-right hand side, the stage clearly appears to be set for “the next go round.”
Why does this matter? If interest rates do rise in the months ahead bond prices – particularly long-term bond prices can get hit hard. To illustrate the potential risks, Figure 4 displays the action of treasury security ETFs of various maturity during a 5-month rise in rates back in 2016.
Figure 4 – Bond ETF action during rate rise in 2016
Summary
It is possible for long and short-term bonds to “de-couple”. In other words, the possibilities are:
*Short-term rates remain stable (as the Fed keeps pumping) while long-term rates rise (as inflation fears arise as a result of all the Fed pumping)
*Short-term rates remain stable while long-term rates plummet (if the economy appears to be weakening). This would result in gains for long-term bonds only
*None of the above
The bottom line: Bonds have fallen asleep – but DO NOT fall asleep on bonds.
VFAA Formula
Below is the code for VFAA
VixFix is an indicator developed many years ago by Larry Williams which essentially compares the latest low to the highest close in the latest 22 periods (then divides the difference by the highest close in the latest 22 periods). I then multiply this result by 100 and add 50 to get VixFix.
*Next is a 3-period exponential average of VixFix
*Then VFAA is arrived at by calculating a 7-period exponential average of the previous result (essentially, we are “double-smoothing” VixFix)
Are we having fun yet? See code below:
hivalclose is hival([close],22).
vixfix is (((hivalclose-[low])/hivalclose)*100)+50.
vixfixaverage is Expavg(vixfix,3).
vixfixaverageave is Expavg(vixfixaverage,7).
VFAA = vixfixaverageave
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author. The information presented represents the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service. In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading. Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.
Truth be told I am not much of a “stock picker”. Oh, I can pick ‘em alright just like anyone else. They just to don’t go the right way as often as I’d like. I also believe that the way to maximize profitability is to follow a momentum type approach that identifies stocks that are performing well and buying them when they breakout to the upside (ala O’Neil, Minervini, Zanger, etc.) and then riding them as long as they continue to perform. Unfortunately, I’m just not very good at it.
Back when I started out, there was such a thing as a “long-term investor.” People would try to find good companies selling at a decent price and they would buy them and hold them for, well, the long-term. Crazy talk, right? As I have already stated, I am not claiming that that is a better approach. I am just pointing out that it was “a thing.”
An Indicator
There is an indicator (I will call it VFAA, which is short for vixfixaverageave, which – lets face it – is a terrible name) that I follow that was developed as an extension of Larry William’s VixFix Indicator. There is nothing magic about it. Its purpose is to identify when price has reached an exceptionally oversold level and “may” be due to rally. The code for this indicator appears later.
For the record, I DO NOT systematically use this indicator in the manner I am about to describe, nor am I recommending that you do. Still, it seems to have some potential value, so what follows is merely an illustration for informational purposes only.
The Rules
*We will look at a monthly bar chart for a given stock
*A “buy signal” occurs when VFAA reaches or exceeds 80 and then turns down for one month
*A “sell (or exit) signal” occurs when VFAA subsequently rises by at least 0.25 from a monthly closing low
Seeing as how this is based solely on monthly closes it obviously this is not going to be a “precision market timing tool.”
Some “Good Companies” with “Troubled Stocks”
So now let’s apply this VFAA indicator to some actual stocks. Again, I AM NOT recommending that anyone use this approach mechanically. The real goal is merely to try to identify situations where a stock has been washed out, reversed and MAY be ready to run for a while.
Ticker BA
Figure 1 displays a monthly chart for Boeing (BA) with VFAA at the bottom. The numbers on the chart represent the hypothetical + (-) % achieved by applying the rules above (although once again, to be clear I am not necessarily suggesting anyone use it exactly this way).
From March 2019 into March 2020 BA declined -80%. It has since bounced around and VFAA has soared to 110.88. VFAA has yet to rollover on a month-end basis, so nothing to do here except exhibit – what’s that word again – oh right, “patience.”
Ticker GD
Figure 2 displays a monthly chart for General Dynamics (GD) with VFAA at the bottom.
Are these “world-beating numbers”? Not really. But in terms of helping to identify potential opportunities, not so bad. VFAA gave a “buy signal” for GD at the end of July. So far, not so good as the stock is down about -6%.
Ticker WFC
Figure 3 displays a monthly chart for Wells Fargo (WFC) with VFAA at the bottom.
There are not many “signals” but the ones that occurred have been useful. Between 2018 and 2020 WFC declined -65%. It has since bounced around and VFAA has soared to 102.44. VFAA has yet to rollover on a month-end basis. But at some point it will, and a potential opportunity may arise.
VFAA Formula
Below is the code for VFAA
VixFix is an indicator developed many years ago by Larry Williams which essentially compares the latest low to the highest close in the latest 22 periods (then divides the difference by the highest close in the latest 22 periods). I then multiply this result by 100 and add 50 to get VixFix.
*Next is a 3-period exponential average of VixFix
*Then VFAA is arrived at by calculating a 7-period exponential average of the previous result (essentially, we are “double-smoothing” VixFix)
Are we having fun yet? See code below:
hivalclose is hival([close],22).
vixfix is (((hivalclose-[low])/hivalclose)*100)+50.
vixfixaverage is Expavg(vixfix,3).
vixfixaverageave is Expavg(vixfixaverage,7).
VFAA = vixfixaverageave
EDITORS NOTE: The WinWay Expert Design Studio code for the indicator is available to download from here. Save this file to your /wintes32/EDS Strategies folder https://aiqeducation.com/VFAA.EDS
Summary
One thing to note is that VFAA “signals” on a monthly chart don’t come around very often. So, you can’t really sit around and wait for a signal to form on your “favorite company”. You have to look for opportunity wherever it might exist.
One last time let me reiterate that I am not suggesting using VFAA as a standalone systematic approach to investing. But when a signal does occur – especially when applied to quality companies that have recently been “whacked”, it can help to identify a potential opportunity.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author. The information presented represents the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service. In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading. Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.
Everyone hates the energy sector (Foreshadowing alert: Well, almost everyone). And a quick perusal of Figure 1 clearly illustrates why the energy sector is unloved.
Figure 1 – Ticker XLE versus ticker QQQ (Courtesy TradingExpert)
Since ticker XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) topped out in 2014:
*XLE has lost -65%
*QQQ has gained +210%
And in another kick in the head to the energy sector, Exxon (ticker XOM) was just kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Take that, losers!
So yeah, who wouldn’t hate energy stocks and decide to shun them? Well, as it turns out, the answer to that question of late is “the people who know the energy business the best.”
Figure 2 from www.Sentimentrader.com displays the Insider Buy/Sell ratio for executives and other muckety-mucks running energy related corporations. The picture speaks for itself.
As you can see, energy corporate insiders have been on a massive buying binge of late. Interestingly, they went on a buying binge in 2019 – apparently expecting an improvement in the sector – then the sector got waylaid by Covid-19. Instead of bailing out the insiders really kicked their share buying into overdrive as you can see at the far right of Figure 2.
Figure 3 displays ticker XLE with an indicator that I developed by simply smoothing Larry Williams VixFix indicator. The gist of the idea, is that when this indicator reaches an extreme high level and then turns down, it often highlights a “washed out” situation which may be followed by a bullish move. Ticker XLE is presently nearing that point.
EDITTORS NOTE: VixFix smoothed indicator code sections can be copied and pasted into EDS or you can download the indicator code in an EDS file from here and save it to your /wintes32/EDS Strategies folder.
This indicator is based on another indicator called VixFix which was developed many years ago by Larry Williams.
hivalclose is hival([close],22). <<<<<The high closing price in that last 22 periods
vixfix is (((hivalclose-[low])/hivalclose)*100)+50. <<<(highest closing price in last 22 periods minus current period low) divided by highest closing price in last 22 periods (then multiplied by 100 and 50 added to arrive at vixfix value)
vixfixaverage is Expavg(vixfix,3). <<< 3-period exponential average of vixfix
vixfixaverageave is Expavg(vixfixaverage,7). <<<7-period exponential average of vixfixaverage
Should savvy investors follow the insider’s lead and start piling into the energy sector? Unfortunately, hindsight is the only way to know for sure. But for what it is worth, my own answer is “probably, but maybe not just yet.”
Energy Seasonality
The primary reason for hesitation at this exact moment in time is seasonality. Let’s use ticker FSESX (Fidelity Select Sector Energy Services) as a proxy for the broader energy index. This fund’s first full month of trading was January 1986. Figure 4 displays the cumulative total return for ticker FSESX ONLY during the months of June through November every year since 1986.
Figure 4 – FSESX cumulative % return June through October (1986-2020)
The cumulative total return during these months for holders of FSESX during June through November is -94.7%(!!!) So, you see my hesitation with “piling in”.
Additionally – climate change concerns aside – much of the energy industry still revolves around crude oil. Figure 4 displays the annual seasonal trend by month for crude oil.
Seasonal trends can vary widely from year-to-year, and there is NO guarantee that trouble lies ahead in Sep-Oct-Nov for the energy sector.
But that is what history suggests.
Summary
The bottom line is this:
*Energy sector corporate insider buying should be seen as a bullish longer-term sign for the sector
*The energy sector is so beaten down, battered and unloved that it probably accurate to refer to the situation as “Blood in the Streets”
Based on these factors I look for energy to surprise investors in the years ahead. That being said:
*Trying to pick the exact bottom in anything is typically a fool’s errand
*Getting bullish on the energy sector in early September is at times fraught with peril.
Sometime around December 1st it will be time to take a close look at the energy sector. If an actual uptrend develops or has already developed, the time may be write for investors to join the insiders.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author. The information presented represents the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service. In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading. Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.
OK, first off a true confession. I hate it when some wise acre analyst acts like they are so smart and that everyone else is an idiot. Its offensive and off-putting – not to mention arrogant. And still in this case, all I can say is “Hi, my name is Jay.”
A lot of attention has been paid lately to the fact that AAPL is essentially swallowing up the whole world in terms of market capitalization. As you can see in Figure 1, no single S&P 500 Index stock has ever had a higher market cap relative to the market cap of the entire Russell 2000 small-cap index.
Figure 1 – Largest S&P 500 Index stock as a % of entire Russell 200 Index (Courtesy Sentimentrader.com)
So of course, the easiest thing in the world to do is to be an offensive, off-putting and arrogant wise acre and say “Well, this can’t last.” There, I said it. With the caveat that I have no idea how far AAPL can run “before the deluge”, as a student of (more) market history (than I care to admit) I cannot ignore this gnawing feeling that this eventually “ends badly.” Of course, I have been wrong plenty of times before and maybe things (Offensive, Off-Putting and Arrogant Trigger Warning!) “really will be different this time around.” To get a sense of why I bring this all up, please keep reading.
In Figure 1 we also see some previous instances of a stock becoming “really large” in terms of market cap. Let’s take a closer look at these instances.
Could AAPL continue to run to much higher levels? Absolutely
Do I still have that offensive, off-putting and slightly arrogant gut feeling that somewhere along the way AAPL takes a huge whack?
Sorry. It’s just my nature.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author. The information presented represents the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service. In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading. Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.
They always say you should buy when there is “blood in the street.” They also say, “buy them when nobody wants them.” So, let’s consider today what could be the most unloved, bombed out, everybody hates it “thing” in the world – coal.
Ugh, just the mention of the word coal elicits a recoiling response. “Dirty energy!” “Climate change inducing filth!” “Ban coal!”. And so and so forth. And maybe they have a point. But “they” also say “facts are stubborn things” (OK, for the record, I think it’s a different “they” who says that but never mind about that right now).
So here is a stubborn fact: coal supplies about a quarter of the world’s primary energy and two-fifths of its electricity. As I write, two of the fastest growing economies (at least they were as of a few months ago) – China and India – are not only heavily reliant upon coal for energy, but are still building more and more coal-fired plants. Now I am making no comment on whether this is a good thing or a bad thing but the point is, it most definitely is a “thing.”
So however one feels about coal, the reality is that it is not going to go away anytime soon. Does this mean it will “soar in value” anytime soon – or even ever for that matter? Not necessarily. But as an unloved commodity it’s sure is hard to beat coal. And as “they” (they sure are a bunch of know it all’s they?) say, “opportunity is where you find it.”
Ticker KOL is an ETF that invests in coal industry related companies. And what a dog it has been. Figure 1 displays a monthly chart of price action. Since peaking in June 2008 at $60.80 a share, it now stands at a measly $6.29 a share, a cool -89.6% below its peak. And like a lot of things it has been in a freefall of late.
So, is this a great time to buy KOL? That’s not for me to say. But for argument’s sake, Figure 2 displays a weekly chart of KOL with an indicator I call Vixfixaverageave (I know, I know), which is a version of an indicator developed a number of years ago by Larry Williams (Indicator code is at the end of the article).
Note that Vixfixaverageave is presently above 90 on the weekly chart. This level has been reached twice before – once in 2008 and once in 2016. Following these two previous instances, once the indicator actually peaked and ticked lower for one week, KOL enjoyed some pretty spectacular moves.
To wit:
*Following the 12/19/08 Vixfixaverageave peak and reversal KOL advanced +252% over the next 27.5 months
*Following the 2/19/16 Vixfixaverageave peak and reversal KOL advanced +182% over the next 23.5 months
When will Vixfixaverageave peak and reverse on the weekly KOL chart? There is no way to know. One must just wait for it to happen. And will it be time to buy KOL when this happens? Again, that is not for me to say. None of this is meant to imply that the bottom for KOL is an hand nor that a massive rally is imminent.
Still, if there is anything at all to contrarian investing, its hard to envision anything more contrarian that KOL.
Vixfixaverageave Calculations
hivalclose is hival([close],22). <<<<<The high closing price in that last 22 periods
vixfix is (((hivalclose-[low])/hivalclose)*100)+50. <<<(highest closing price in last 22 periods minus current period low) divided by highest closing price in last 22 periods (then multiplied by 100 and 50 added to arrive at vixfix value)
vixfixaverage is Expavg(vixfix,3). <<< 3-period exponential average of vixfix
vixfixaverageave is Expavg(vixfixaverage,7). <<<7-period exponential average of vixfixaverage
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author. The information presented does not represent the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service. In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading. Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.
In a few recent articles (for example here) I suggested that one day we would look back on this period as a terrific buying opportunity for energy related issues. At the same time, I still have yet to become comfortable “pulling the trigger”. Thank goodness for small favors.
Anyway, the overall sentiment still holds. Energy is dirt cheap as are shares of most energy related stocks/ETFs etc. Again, that doesn’t necessarily mean that now is the exact moment to “load up”. To say that there is a wee bit of uncertainty regarding the future would be about the greatest understatement one could presently make. Still, it is important to plan ahead and to be prepared when the time comes. So, what follows should be considered “food for thought” and not “an immediate call to action.”
A Few Things Energy
Ticker TAN
According to conventional wisdom, the future is “green”. I’ll be candid – I am all for green energy, as long as when I flip the switch the lights come on AND when I look at my energy bill I don’t faint. So, let’s start with a “green” play.
Turth be told, ticker TAN (Invesco Solar Energy ETF) has never been much of a performer. Still, its in the solar business which people keep telling me is “the future.” In reality the primary thing it has going for it is that it hasn’t completely cratered to the same degree as just about every other stock in the energy sector. As you can see in Figure 1, TAN actually bottomed out at $12.60 in 2012 and – despite a near 50% decline during the recent panic – is presently trading around $26 a share. Not necessarily a screaming buy signal, but a nice relative performance as we will see in a moment.
In a sure “Sign of the Times”, the Good News is that gasoline prices are at their lowest levels in year, while the Bad News is that we don’t have anywhere to drive to except the grocery store. Figure 2 displays the chart for ticker UGA – the United States Gasoline Fund, and ETF that tracks the price of gasoline.
While attempting to “pick a bottom” is a fool’s errand, the primary point is that it is not that hard to envision the price of this ETF being significantly higher at some point in the years ahead. Whether an investor has the fortitude to weather whatever the short-term uncertainty and the patience to see how the long-term plays out are the primary issues associated with contemplating this ticker at the moment.
Ticker XLE is a play on the broad (mostly fossil fuel related) energy sector. As you can see in Figure 3, XLE has plunged to price levels not since 2004. In addition, it presently yields roughly 8.8%. That being said, an investor has to realistically expect that dividend payments in the hard-hit energy sector will see some significant cuts as things play out in the months ahead.
With an oil price war in full swing, not to mention a sharp decline in demand for the foreseeable future due to the coronavirus pandemic, the fundamentals for this sector are unlikely to improve soon. Nevertheless, the reality is that – at least for the time being – the world runs on crude oil. As a result, the current price range may one day be looked back upon as a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity.
OK, let’s throw in one obscure, totally speculative – yet fundamentally intriguing – thought for consideration. Ticker PAGP (Plains GP Holdings, L.P.). Here is what they do (straight from their website):
“Plains engages in the transportation, storage, terminalling, and marketing of crude oil and refined products, as well as in the storage of natural gas, and the processing, transportation, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids.
Assets include:
*17,965 miles of active crude oil and NGL pipelines and gathering systems (emphasis mine as these things will continue to function as long as crude and NG need to be moved – which they do)
*50 barges and 20 transport tugs
*109 million barrels of storage capacity
*1,600+ trucks and trailers
*9,100 rail cars”
The bottom line is that as long as crude oil and natural gas needs to be moved, PAGP has a niche in which to operate. For the record, at $6.35 a share the stock’s present dividend comes to a yield of 22.7%. Certainly, the prospect of a significant dividend cut is a Signiant risk associated with this stock. But for the moment anyway the price is near an all-time low and the dividend yield is attractive.
As allows, DO NOT look upon what I have written as “recommendations.” Particularly in the current environment. They are simply “food for thought.”
Given current fundamentals:
*An ongoing oil price war (making drilling and refining unprofitable for many companies)
*An economy on shutdown (which cripples demand)
*An existential struggle between “green” energy and “traditional” fossil fuel-based sources (which creates uncertainty about future expectations)
All combine to make the energy sector a giant question mark at the present time. But if the old adage that the time to buy is when there is “blood in the streets”, than investors might be well served in the long run to start thinking now about how much capital they might be willing to commit to energy, and what type of catalyst might prompt them to actually “take the plunge.”
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author. The information presented does not represent the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service. In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading. Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.
English